Artificial intelligence is expected to significantly accelerate global trade over the next 15 years, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) projecting an increase in global trade of goods and services by nearly 40 percent by 2040. The forecast, published in the WTO’s World Trade Report 2025, highlights the economic potential of AI adoption across sectors and economies when supported by strong policy frameworks and infrastructure development.
The report estimates that AI could raise global GDP by 12 to 13 percent over the same period, depending on the scale and pace of technology integration. The organization attributes the projected trade gains to AI’s ability to reduce trade costs, enhance logistics, improve productivity, and increase the efficiency of cross-border operations. These changes are anticipated to affect both goods and services, with implications for traditional manufacturing, finance, healthcare, and digital services.
According to the WTO, the largest trade increases are expected in sectors already heavily reliant on digital technologies, such as business services, communication, financial services, and transport. AI is also likely to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises by reducing barriers to entry in international markets through automation, digital platforms, and language translation tools.
The findings are based on multiple economic models that assess AI’s impact under various scenarios of digital infrastructure adoption. In a scenario where lower- and middle-income countries close half of the digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies, income gains are projected at around 15 percent for developing economies and 14 percent for advanced ones. If the digital divide remains wide, income growth in less developed countries could remain below 8 percent, the report notes.
WTO outlines economic benefits of global AI adoption
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that digital technologies are reshaping the global trading landscape and that trade policies must evolve accordingly. She noted that AI’s trade-enhancing potential could be fully realized only through investments in digital infrastructure, education, and skills development. She also emphasized the importance of transparent and predictable trade rules in enabling broader AI access.
Trade in goods essential for AI development, such as semiconductors, sensors, computers, and related components, reached $2.3 trillion in 2023. These goods are integral to machine learning, automation, and cloud computing technologies. However, WTO data shows that import restrictions on AI-related products have increased sharply in recent years, from 130 measures in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024.
In some low-income countries, bound tariffs on AI-enabling products remain as high as 45 percent. The report warns that without policy action to address trade barriers and technology gaps, the benefits of AI could remain unevenly distributed. It notes that the availability of skilled labor, reliable digital infrastructure, and affordable access to AI technologies will play a key role in determining which economies benefit the most from the AI-driven trade expansion.
AI tools enable small businesses to access global markets
AI’s growing role in shaping trade patterns is already evident, particularly in the services sector. Cross-border trade in digitally delivered services, which includes cloud computing, digital consulting, and online education, has grown rapidly and is likely to accelerate further with advances in generative AI and large language models.
The WTO’s findings underscore the urgency for coordinated international efforts to ensure that AI adoption contributes to inclusive global growth. The organization called on governments to modernize trade policies and invest in enabling frameworks to maximize the potential of digital technologies across all economies. – By Content Syndication Services.